Home of Storm Chasers Tony Propp and Brady Kendrick

The Fall Update

Thu, 27 Oct 2011 21:40:00 +0000

Hey everyone this is Brady with the fall update. Over the next month or two, we will start to make a few minor changes to the site. First we will be making some changes to the photo section just to make things look more uniform. There will be some new pictures added as well so keep a eye out for those! Also now that some busy times are past for us....we will start catching up on some old chase logs and doing some weather discussions about our winter events in the future (school has been busy and I finally got my break).

The changes will be very gradual and will likely not be complete until late December of this year. Stay tuned!

-Brady Kendrick

August 24, 2011 Microburst Discussion

Thu, 25 Aug 2011 19:05:00 +0000

Well after the dry spring the region has been having, the central Texas Panhandle did finally pick up some decent rainfall! Places across the region were reporting anywhere from a trace to 1.5 inches here in Canyon. The storms on Wednesday night though came with a nasty punch as well. As the storms came into the Canyon area, they became severe and produced severe winds in the form of a microburst that did quite a bit of damage just north of the city of Canyon. We will go into what a microburst is and also the damage this one did just north of town. (if you want, you can skip to the damage pictures at the end of the post)

A microburst is a localized but intense area of thunderstorm winds that are the result of rain cool air crashing to the surface at a rapid rate. Generally these winds only cover areas in 1/2 to 2 mile swaths but the damage in these swaths can be significant with winds up to 130 mph at the worst. Microburst tend to be more frequent when a thunderstorm moves over a layer of dry air. This dry air allows the rain/rain cooled air to fall quickly to the ground. On August 24, temperatures had been above 100 degrees with dew points only in the upper 40s/low to mid 50s setting the stage for microburst.

About 6 to 8 pm thunderstorms began to fire north of Amarillo along a frontal boundary. These thunderstorms then moved southward starting around the 9pm hour. As they continued to move south, they began to intensify quickly. As they moved over the Randall County area, they became severe and produced some 60mph just after 10pm. I was fortunate enough to be out taking lightning pictures and found myself out in front of the storm. As 10:18 pm rolled around, a microburst became visible near Canyon. In the photograph below, you can see how classic of a microburst this was.

In the center of the frame, you can see where the rain and cooled air is rapidly coming down to the ground. On the left side of that, you can see how the winds spread out after they hit the ground (note the dust kicking up). It is in the areas around the direct impact of the microburst that will see the worst wind typically. Once the wind spreads out for a few miles, it will typically not do as much damage as near the site of impact.

In this case, the microburst hit in a rural area fortunately (although it was only 1 mile north of the City of Canyon which got lucky). In the image below you can see how localized microburst damage truly is.....this one only covered a swath about 1/2 mile wide by .75 miles long.

In this map you will also note yellow markers indicating damage from the microburst. After the event, I went out and did a little survey of the damage to be able to get a sense of the strength of the winds, and the scale of this microburst. The microburst first made impact near a corn field off of Country Club Road in the top right part of the image above. At that location, a power pole was severely bent to the SW and just down the road, part of the roof of a outbuilding was removed and blown to the west. This kind of damage is conclusive with the 70-75mph range.

After traveling for about 2/3 of a mile, the winds were able to snap 6 power-poles in half and also flatten vegetation in a field next to the poles. This kind of damage definitely indicates a significant downburst. Based on the damage at this location, I would say winds maxed out in the 85 to 95mph range, but honestly they could have been a touch higher as well.

This downburst was a fairly localized and was only about 1/2 mile wide by 3/4 miles long. Winds probably maxed out in the 85-90mph range towards the end of the swath. It is very fortunate though this downburst did not hit a mile to the south or else it would have hit the Hunsley Hills neighborhood of Canyon (which just happens to be my home).

Thanks for reading and enjoy some of the pictures from the damage survey

-Brady Kendrick

One of the six power-poles that got snapped in half/at the base.

The leaning power-pole at the beginning of the swath of damage.

Outbuilding with uplift and removal of the roof.

A close up view of the vegetation that was flattened.

A few more damage pictures can be found here

Closing May Out

Sun, 22 May 2011 03:17:00 +0000

Well as we are coming into the final weeks of May, there has not been too much going on in the world of Mesochase. Due to a uncooperative atmosphere, we have logged less than 10 chases this year and have only documented on tornado back in March. The main reason for this is the unfavorable setups associated with La Nina. This year moister and SW 850mb winds have been killing setup after setup over the plains while places such as the south have been slammed. As we head towards June, it appears that this pattern will be weakening so hopefully the Southern Plains will light up at some point.

Speaking of severe weather potential, Brady Kendrick may be finally looking at a decent chance of a chase coming this Monday up in the Oklahoma Panhandle. A warm front looks to setup by afternoon in the area which will set the stage for supercells but more on this will be posted later in a detailed discussion by Brady Kendrick.

Chase Status Definitions

Tue, 22 Mar 2011 04:41:00 +0000

Here are what our chase statuses translate to probability wise of us chasing:

No chases expected in the next 72 hours; pretty self explanatory...0% chance of a chase in the next 3 days.

Very Low chance of a chase in the next 72 hours; usually used if some kind of setup appears possible of producing severe weather across the area in the 72 hour and beyond time frame but usually means we will likely not chase it based on current conditions. 0%< to 20% chance of chase.

Slight chance of a chase in the next 72 hours; usualy use this level of prepardness when a chasesable setup appears possilbe at the 72 hour range but there is still uncertainty of our chase operations. This usualy means a 20%< to 40% chance of chasing.

Moderate chance of a chase in the next 48 hours; when this level is posted, chaseable conditions are increaseinly likely in the 48-72 hours time frame. 40%< to 60% chance of a chase.

High Chance of a chase in the next 24 hours; when this level is posted, we will likely be chasing in the coming 24 hours. Rarely posted 48 hours out unless a significant severe weather event looks likely and model agreement is high. 60%< to 95% chance of a chase.

Chasing; self explanatory once again. 100% chance of a chase.

Wild Fires Burning In Texas Panhandle

Sun, 27 Feb 2011 21:09:00 +0000

Well everyone, Brady Kendrick is not out chasing storms today. He is chasing wild fires to ensure his local areas safety. Unfortunately, there are evacuations being made in the northeast side of Amarillo. There is also a major fire burning near Clovis, NM and another smaller fire south of Portales, NM. Brady has documented the fires near Clovis and is now near Canyon, TX monitoring for fires. More updates will come as we get them in!

Recent Updates

Fri, 18 Feb 2011 05:27:00 +0000

Hey everyone this is Brady with a quick update on Mesochase's recent activities. Currently Tony Propp is representing the Mesochase team in Denver, Colorado at the 2011 National Storm Chasing Convention. He will be in Denver for the weekend learning about the latest and greatest in the chaser community and to network with other chasers. Tony will be updating us later about his experience at the convention.

In other news from Mesochase, check back often this weekend for new updates from the site. As you know, we have conducted a major overhaul of the site during the winter months and we will be finishing up a majority of our updates this weekend. We will be posting a majority of our chase summaries from tornado season 2010 and also get some new pictures up from the recent winter storms in the Panhandle of Texas. On a final note, we will hope to start forecasting more on a more consistent basis so check back starting next week for our forecast. A new blog will be posted later this weekend so stay tuned!

-Brady Kendrick